South African retailers are entering their most important trading window. The final quarter usually stabilises annual performance, boosts margins, and shapes planning for the year ahead. This period blends seasonal demand, targeted promotions, and the psychology of year-end spending, giving retailers a short but decisive window to capture consumer attention.
A Clear Shift in Card Activity
Absa Merchant Spend Analytics for October points to a meaningful rebound. After a weak September, card spending rose by 4% in October, recovering from a 6% decline the month before. Transaction volumes improved from an 8% fall to 2% growth. October also recorded the year’s highest average transaction size, with average ticket value rising by 1.9%.
Promotional activity and early Black Friday deals are already influencing behaviour, drawing shoppers back into the market.
Stokvel Payouts Add Seasonal Momentum
Stokvel payouts drive South Africa’s festive season. These collective savings schemes inject billions into the economy.
“Stokvels no longer fund groceries alone,” said Isana Cordier, Managing Executive: Consumer Sector at Absa CIB. “We see spending on school supplies, travel and even property. This adds another wave of activity that retailers can use during an already high-intensity quarter.”
Consumers Feel the Pressure, but Still Shop
Despite easing inflation and stable interest rates, financial strain remains. Absa’s Macroeconomics Research team noted a slight decline in consumer sentiment in Q3, based on the latest BER data.
Even so, consumers continue to engage with promotions. Rising transaction volumes show that shoppers are buying more often, but spending less each time. This reflects tightening budgets, stronger price sensitivity, and a clear focus on essentials.
Many shoppers are also delaying major purchases until Black Friday.
Payday Timing Shapes Black Friday Outcomes
Pay cycle alignment remains a strong influence.
“When Black Friday falls after payday, spending lifts faster,” said Cordier. “In 2022 and 2024, we saw strong growth in both card spending and transaction volumes. But when it lands before payday, as it did in 2023, the increase is much softer.”
This pattern highlights how closely households link spending to income timing.
What Shoppers Bought in 2024
Online spend in 2024 was led by:
• home and garden (35%)
• business and professional services (25%)
• clothing (16%)
• food (13%)
None of these online categories showed year-on-year growth.
In-store spending was concentrated in:
• food (50%)
• clothing (16%)
• business and professional services (11%)
Both food and clothing posted double-digit in-store growth, showing that physical retail remains strong despite ongoing e-commerce expansion.
What to Expect for Black Friday 2025
Shoppers are expected to take a hybrid approach, using both online and in-store channels. Digital platforms will see faster growth, supported by convenience, delivery options and loyalty incentives. Retailers who simplify promotions, strengthen stock planning and prioritise value will be best placed to benefit.
